The Shoulder-Launched Missile Threat

Security experts are concerned about the threat to commercial airliners by shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles, also known as MANPADS, or Man-Portable Air Defense Systems. Small, light, and obtainable in the international arms markets, there are thousands of MANPADS in various versions available from surplus or stolen military stocks. Some military aircraft are equipped with special defensive systems that often (but not always) mislead the missile away from its target. Some are now advocating that similar systems be installed on commercial airliners.

The question of whether to put missile defense systems on airliners is extremely complicated. Older versions of MANPADS are simply not very accurate or reliable. They are designed primarily to take down small military jets or helicopters, whose internally mounted engines make them much more susceptible to airframe and systems failure than an airliner. Airliner engines typically are mounted out under the wing, have hardened housings that are designed to contain a failure while in flight, and can fly on one engine. Calculating the probabilities that a missile attack would cause an airliner to crash is difficult at best.

Missile attacks against civil aircraft are not new, but the history of these events shows that there are very few proven instances where an airliner was attacked, and in most of these cases the airliner survived to land safely. All but one of these attacks occurred in areas of military or civil conflict. There have been no known attacks in the U.S., and it is impossible to predict the probability of an attack against a U.S. airline.

Even if it can be proven that missile defense systems can be made effective and reliable against known missile varieties, such systems would protect only against a MANPADS attack. They would do nothing to protect against the wide variety of other stand-off weapons available to terrorists, including remotely operated explosive devices and small arms.

If a decision is made to proceed with installation of missile defense systems another significant factor that must be considered is cost. Installation costs have been estimated at one to two million dollars per aircraft, but that does not include hidden costs such as maintenance and the effects on aircraft performance. With approximately 7,000 airliners in the U.S. fleet, total costs will run from 10 to 20 billion dollars. The airline industry cannot afford such enormous costs, and it is ALPA’s position that the government has an obligation to protect air travelers against terrorist attacks. Therefore, all MANPADS countermeasure-related costs should be borne by the government as part of national defense.

ALPA has formed a special internal working group to study these and other considerations regarding missile defense systems for airliners. The Association is closely monitoring a study being conducted by the Department of Homeland Security as to the feasibility of, and necessity for, missile defense systems on airliners. Until the results of that assessment are known, ALPA’s interim position is that we have not yet seen adequate justification for an arbitrary mandate to install such equipment on our fleets.

Click here for ALPA's Position on Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) Countermeasures.